FIRE Target Scenarios
Target amounts for each FIRE type at the default inputs, ranked and compared across retirement ages. Every figure is calculated with the same formulas as the interactive calculator, so these are calculated scenarios, not survey data.
Headline figure
$500,000 – $1,500,000
At the default 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate and $40,000/yr expenses, targets across the 4 expense-multiple FIRE types range from $500,000 (Barista) to $1,500,000 (Fat) — a 200% spread. Coast FIRE is not an expense multiple: it is a $263,555 seed needed today.
Updated .
FIRE targets ranked (highest to lowest)
Lean FIRE's target ($600,000) is 40% below the Regular FIRE target ($1,000,000).
| Rank | FIRE Type | Multiplier | Target Amount | Monthly Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fat FIRE | 150% | $1,500,000 | $5,000/mo |
| 2 | Regular FIRE | 100% | $1,000,000 | $3,333/mo |
| 3 | Lean FIRE | 60% | $600,000 | $2,000/mo |
| 4 | Barista FIRE | 50% | $500,000 | $1,667/mo |
| 5 | Coast FIRE (seed needed today) | discounted seed | $263,555 | $3,333/mo at retirement |
FIRE targets by retirement age
Cross-scenario comparison across 5 retirement ages, holding all other inputs at their defaults. Lean, Regular, Fat and Barista targets do not depend on retirement age; Coast FIRE's discounted seed amount shrinks the later you retire, since the portfolio has more years to compound.
| Retire At | Lean | Regular | Fat | Coast (seed today) | Barista |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age 40 | $600,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,500,000 | $683,179 | $500,000 |
| Age 45 | $600,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,500,000 | $564,679 | $500,000 |
| Age 50 | $600,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,500,000 | $466,733 | $500,000 |
| Age 55 | $600,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,500,000 | $385,777 | $500,000 |
| Age 60 | $600,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,500,000 | $318,862 | $500,000 |
What the scenarios show
- Fat FIRE requires 150% more than Lean FIRE at the same $40,000/yr expense base ($1,500,000 vs. $600,000).
- Regular FIRE's target is 100% higher than Barista FIRE's ($1,000,000 vs. $500,000), the exact gap made up by part-time income in the Barista strategy.
- Retiring at 60 instead of 40 cuts the Coast FIRE seed amount needed today by 53% ($683,179 to $318,862), because the portfolio has more years to compound.
- Across the 5 retirement-age scenarios (40-60), the Lean, Regular, Fat and Barista targets stay flat — Regular FIRE's, for example, is $1,000,000 at every age — because they depend only on annual expenses and the safe withdrawal rate, not on retirement age.
- At the default 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate, every extra $1,000/yr of expenses adds $37,500 to Fat FIRE, $25,000 to Regular FIRE, $15,000 to Lean FIRE, $12,500 to Barista FIRE and $6,588 to the Coast FIRE seed.
Download the data
The exact figures above, in machine-readable form — same dataset, no additional processing. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with credit to FIREPath.
Methodology note: All figures are calculated with the same formulas as the calculator, documented on the methodology page. They are scenario figures at default inputs, not survey data.
Disclaimer: This calculator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Results are based on simplified assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Sources & References
- [1]Trinity Study (1998) — Safe Withdrawal Rate— Underlying assumption described on the methodology page.
- [2]NYU Stern historical U.S. equity return data— Underlying assumption described on the methodology page.
- [3]U.S. Inflation Calculator — historical CPI data— Underlying assumption described on the methodology page.